[1]秦建国.太湖地区2015年主汛期雨情展望及后期对比分析[J].江苏水利,2019,(08):14-20.
　QIN Jianguo.Prospect of rainfall in the main flood season(July-August)of Taihu Lake Region in 2015 and comparative analysis in the later period --take Wuxi Station as an example[J].JIANGSU WATER RESOURCES,2019,(08):14-20.
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太湖地区2015年主汛期雨情展望及后期对比分析()
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《江苏水利》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2019年08期
页码:
14-20
栏目:
水文水资源
出版日期:
2019-08-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Prospect of rainfall in the main flood season(July-August)of Taihu Lake Region in 2015 and comparative analysis in the later period --take Wuxi Station as an example
文章编号:
1007-7839(2019)08-0014-07
作者:
秦建国
江苏省水文水资源勘测局无锡分局, 江苏 无锡 214031
Author(s):
QIN Jianguo
Wuxi Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Wuxi 214031, Jiangsu
关键词:
汛期;  雨情;  周期;  历史演变法
Keywords:
flood season;  rain forecast;  cycle;  historical evolution method
分类号:
TV125
文献标志码:
B
摘要:
选择历史演变法和分段法,围绕降雨极值出现后的序列特征变化对太湖地区代表性雨量站展开分析,回避了繁琐的资料统计过程,按时完成预测任务,并且取得了较好的成果。研究表明,无锡站降雨资料不但在太湖流域具有较高的代表性,在国内也具有一定的代表性,可以很好地反映我国降雨带的南北转移情况; 无锡站6月降雨量出现特大峰值后,对7月的影响是负相关、降雨正常偏少,对8月的影响则是正相关、降雨偏多; 暖冬对无锡站汛期降雨的影响是5月和9月偏少、8月偏多,冷冬的影响正好相反。同时,总结了区域降雨的变化规律,可为防汛工作提供技术支撑与参考。
Abstract:
The historical evolution method and the segmentation method were selected to analyze the representative rainfall stations in the Taihu Lake area after the occurrence of the extreme values of rainfall extremes, avoiding the cumbersome data statistics process, completing the forecasting tasks on time, and achieving good results. The results showed that the rainfall data of Wuxi Rainfall Station were not only highly representative in the Taihu Lake Basin, but also representative in China, which could well reflect the North-South transfer of the rainfall belt in China. After the extreme peak rainfall in June at Wuxi Rainfall Station, the influence on July was negatively correlated with less normal rainfall, while the influence on August was positively correlated with more rainfall. The influence of warm winter on the rainy season of Wuxi Station was less in May and September, more in August, while the influence of cold winter was just the opposite. Meanwhile, the variation rule of regional rainfall was summarized, which could provide technical support for flood control work.

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相似文献/References:

[1]方应学,钟华昱,方国华,等.江苏省主汛期降水特征分析[J].江苏水利,2023,(01):59.
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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-01-26
作者简介:秦建国(1970-),男,本科,高级工程师,主要从事水文勘测、中长期水文预报和气候研究工作。
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-08-15