[1]任杰,凌金平,徐毅,等.基于变量联合分布的沿江城市雨洪遭遇概率分析[J].江苏水利,2025,(05):16-20.
　REN Jie,LING Jinping,XU Yi,et al.Probability analysis of rainfall and flood encounters in cities along the river based on joint distribution of variable[J].JIANGSU WATER RESOURCES,2025,(05):16-20.
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基于变量联合分布的沿江城市雨洪遭遇概率分析()

《江苏水利》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2025年05期
页码:
16-20
栏目:
防汛抗旱
出版日期:
2025-05-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Probability analysis of rainfall and flood encounters in cities along the river based on joint distribution of variable
文章编号:
1007-7839（2025）05-0016-0005
作者:
任杰1; 凌金平2; 徐毅1; 程晓东1; 万思成1
（1. 江苏省水利科学研究院，江苏 南京 210017；2. 镇江市长江河道管理处，江苏 镇江 212008）
Author(s):
REN Jie1;  LING Jinping2;  XU Yi1;  CHENG Xiaodong1;  WAN Sicheng1
（1. Jiangsu Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210017, China；2. Zhenjiang Yangtze River Management Office, Zhenjiang 212008, China）
关键词:
暴雨; 联合分布; 风险分析; 雨洪遭遇; 概率分析
Keywords:
rainstorm;  joint distribution;  risk analysis;  rainfall and flood encounter;  probabitity analysis
分类号:
X43
文献标志码:
B
摘要:
随着城市化的快速推进，城市内涝问题日益凸显。城市内涝与城市区域内降水量有关，也与城市外排能力有关，而外排能力又与外排河道水位密切相关。因此，研究暴雨与外河高水位遭遇的风险具有重要的现实意义。以南京市为例，分别对南京站1951—2022年年最大日降水量和滑动1 d最大高潮位进行边缘分布与联合分布拟合，对单一风险和遭遇风险进行分析。
Abstract:
With the rapid advancement of urbanization, the problem of urban waterlogging has become increasingly prominent. In addition to being related to the precipitation within the urban area, urban waterlogging is also associated with the urban external drainage capacity, which in turn is closely related to the water level of the external drainage river channels. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the risk of rainstorm and high water level in external rivers. Taking Nanjing City as an example, the marginal distributions and joint distributions of the annual maximum daily precipitation and the maximum high tide level in a sliding 1-day period at Nanjing Station from 1951 to 2022 were respectively fitted, and the single risks and co-occurrence risks were analyzed.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2024-12-10
基金项目：江苏省水利科技项目（2022015，2022008），江苏省水利科学研究院自主科研经费专项资金项目（2023Z040）
作者简介：任杰（1994—），女，工程师，博士，主要从事水旱灾害防御研究。E-mail：jessieren2016@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-05-15