[1]孙建伟,王加虎,祝 银.缺资料条件下赵村水库入库洪水集合预报研究[J].江苏水利,2019,(10):43-46.
　SUN Jianwei,WANG Jiahu,ZHU Yin.Study on ensemble flood forecasting of Zhaocun Reservoir under the condition of lack of data[J].JIANGSU WATER RESOURCES,2019,(10):43-46.
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缺资料条件下赵村水库入库洪水集合预报研究()
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《江苏水利》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2019年10期
页码:
43-46
栏目:
水利工程建设
出版日期:
2019-11-02

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on ensemble flood forecasting of Zhaocun Reservoir under the condition of lack of data
文章编号:
1007-7839(2019)10-0043-04
作者:
孙建伟1;  王加虎2;  祝 银2
1.南京市江宁区赵村水库管理所, 江苏 南京 211155; 2.河海大学 水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098
Author(s):
SUN Jianwei1; WANG Jiahu2;  ZHU Yin2
1.Zhaocun Reservoir Management Office of Jianning District, Nanjing 211155, Jiangsu; 2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu
关键词:
洪水预报;  设计洪水参数;  新安江模型;  集合预报;  赵村水库
Keywords:
flood forecasting;  design flood parameter;  Xin'anjiang model;  ensemble forecast;  Zhaocun Reservoir
分类号:
TV122+.2
文献标志码:
B
摘要:
水库入库洪水预报对水库调度和水资源综合利用意义重大。在实测资料序列较短的赵村水库,新安江模型预报因为缺乏历史大洪水的信息,预报结果很可能偏小,借用设计入库洪水参数预报的入库洪水往往偏安全。鉴于此,尝试将2种方法的预报结果加权,在生产实践中应用效果较好。
Abstract:
Reservoir flood forecasting is of great significance for reservoir dispatching and comprehensive utilization of water resources.With a short sequence of measured data in the Zhaocun Reservoir, the Xin'anjiang model forecast is likely to be small due to the lack of information on historical floods information.Therefore, the prediction results of reservoir flood based on the design of reservoir flood parameters are often relatively safe.In view of this, it is attempted to weight the prediction results of the two methods, and the application effect is better in production practice.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-04-26 作者简介:孙建伟(1984—),男,本科,工程师,主要从事水利工程管理工作。
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-11-15