[1]朱广伟,辛华荣,李未,等.太湖蓝藻水华年度情势的预测方法研究[J].江苏水利,2022,(09):6-10.
　ZHU Guangwei,XIN Huarong,LI Wei,et al.Study on forecast method of cyanobacterial bloom annual situation in Lake Taihu[J].JIANGSU WATER RESOURCES,2022,(09):6-10.
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太湖蓝藻水华年度情势的预测方法研究()
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《江苏水利》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2022年09期
页码:
6-10
栏目:
水生态与环境
出版日期:
2022-10-08

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on forecast method of cyanobacterial bloom annual situation in Lake Taihu
文章编号:
1007-7839(2022)09-0006-0005
作者:
朱广伟1; 辛华荣2; 李未1; 刘俊杰2; 邹伟1; 秦伯强1
（1.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所太湖湖泊生态系统研究站，江苏 南京 210008；2.江苏省水文水资源勘测局，江苏 南京 210029）
Author(s):
ZHU Guangwei1;  XIN Huarong2;  LI Wei1;  LIU Junjie2;  ZOU Wei1;  QIN Boqiang1
（1.Taihu Laboratory for Lake Ecosystem Research, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China；2.Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau, Nanjing 210029, China）
关键词:
太湖; 蓝藻水华; 风险预测; 多元回归模型
Keywords:
Lake Taihu;  cyanobacterial bloom;  risk forecast;  multiple regression model
分类号:
X82
文献标志码:
B
摘要:
基于太湖近20年蓝藻水华情势及相关环境因子的监测资料，采用多元回归分析法，构建了太湖春季（3—5月）、水华季（3—11月）蓝藻水华强度与冬季藻种情况、气象与水文因子、营养盐状况等环境因子的统计关系模型，利用该模型能够有效实施太湖蓝藻水华季度及年度情势预测分析，为类似湖库的蓝藻水华灾害防控提供技术支撑。
Abstract:
Based on the monitoring data of cyanobacterial bloom situation and related environmental factors in Lake Taihu in the past 20 years, using multiple regression analysis, the multiple statistical relationship between spring bloom intensity （March-May） or bloom-season’s bloom intensity （March-November） and the major control factors, such as winter phytoplankton condition, meteorological condition, hydrological condition and nutrient background, was built. The use of this model can effectively implement the seasonal and annual forecast and analysis of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu, and provide technical support for the prevention and control of cyanobacterial bloom disasters similar to lakes and reservoirs.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2022-03-20
基金项目：江苏省水利科技项目（2020004），中国科学院野外站联盟项目（KFJ-SW-YW036）
作者简介：朱广伟（1972—），男，研究员，博士，主要从事湖库有害藻类水华机制研究，E-mail:gwzhu@niglas.ac.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-09-25